This county voted with the popular vote each time. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. That's 14 in a row. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. 4. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. . Here's why. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Their emotions and decision making process are real. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. The matters that way on their minds are real. TIP: In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. University of New Hampshire . That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Arapahoe County. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Watauga has gone for. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. But both are worth watching. Nobody forgot about politics.". Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Outstanding. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. These are the bellwether counties. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. 5. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. University of Denver, 2. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Hillary Clinton (578) How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Until this year. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Republicans have paid some attention. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. 6. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Read about our approach to external linking. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Demographics (84) Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. All rights reserved. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Trump won 18 of the 19. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. We believe this was a mistake. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. hide caption. They simply vote on merit. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Free and open-source. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Will That Last?]. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. These counties could play an . Trump gave them hope. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. 3. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte).
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